Sub-$5M revenue agencies cleared 11.3x, 10.8x, and 11.0x in the last two weeks. The MarshBerry data point we flagged last week is now playing out in the deal log.
When MarshBerry's Q4 2025 report posted a 10.2x median for sub-$5 million revenue agencies, the question was whether the number would hold or whether it was a Q4 spike that compressed in Q1. Two weeks of deal data answer the question. Three sub-$5M revenue books closed at 11.3x, 10.8x, and 11.0x — a band sitting above the Q4 median. The compression we and most advisors expected is not happening. Three reasons the small-book band is holding. First, the buyer-pool concentration thesis we covered in Issue 5 is still weakening; more capital is competing on each smaller transaction, which keeps the multiple firm. Second, the producer-retention earnout structure works disproportionately well on smaller books — a three- or four-producer roster is easier to retention-engineer than a 12-producer mid-market shop. Third, the inland geographic premium is real and concentrated in the smaller-book band specifically. The Coastline deal from Issue 1 is the structural counter-example: coastal commercial books are clearing the bottom of the band, not the top. The implication for principals at $2 to $5 million in revenue contemplating a sale in the next 18 months is direct. The number you have been planning against — 9.5 to 10.0x for the small-book band — is roughly a turn light. We will update the cornerstone valuation guide if the band holds through Q2. Two of three M&A advisors we spoke to expect the band to hold; one expects compression by Q3. Watch this thread.
Inland producer-led book; cleared the upper edge of the small-book band. Hub's earnout: 30 percent holdback against the now-standard producer-retention structure. Worth flagging because Hub's pacing in the small-book band has accelerated — three sub-$5M deals in 60 days, where their 2024 cadence ran roughly one per quarter.
Source: Hub press release Apr 1 2026
Smaller commercial book in a secondary metro — the small-book band holding even outside the Tier-1 inland markets. Patriot's earnout retains the 30 percent producer-retention holdback. The Mid-Atlantic Risk deal from Issue 3 is the structural cousin; Patriot's pattern is consistent.
Source: Patriot announcement
Inland Carolina commercial book; the inland-coastal split we have been tracking is visible here. World's first NC inland deal of the year — and notable because the firm's January Bay State transaction (Issue 3) is structurally identical. The buyer's earnout architecture is now consistent across geographies: 25 percent holdback, three-producer retention schedule, 36-month tail.
Source: World Insurance press release
Reaffirmed expanded appetite — Middle-market commercial — Northeast
Hartford's Northeast middle-market reopening from Issue 2 held through Q1 and underwriters tell us the binding authority widened a second time in late March. The carrier's posture on requoted accounts is notably aggressive — accounts that routed wholesale in 2024 and 2025 are clearing standard at flat or single-digit increases. Operator implication: this is a real opportunity, not a bulletin-language opportunity.
Sources: Hartford agency bulletin Mar 28 2026 · Regional underwriter (anonymous, requested per editorial policy)
Tightened underwriting — Workers comp — high-hazard contractor classes
AmTrust pulled in on high-hazard contractor workers comp specifically — roofing, excavation, demolition. The retreat is independent of the broader reinsurance softening; AmTrust's high-hazard book has run loss-ratio pressure separate from the treaty math. Wholesale markets — including the GUARD program expansion we covered in Issue 4 — are absorbing some but not all of this capacity. Plan placements 90 days out, not 45.
Source: AmTrust agency bulletin Apr 1 2026
Bridge added six wholesale property programs to its small-commercial submission platform this month, including two cat-exposed habitational facilities that previously required manual broker submission. The platform's bound-vs-quoted ratio on the new programs is running mid-20s percent — typical for new program launches. We watched two principals in our reading audience submit through Bridge last week; the workflow worked, the underwriting reliability is the question we are tracking through Q2.
We'll have a deeper review next month.
Source: Bridge platform release notes Apr 2026
Sica Fletcher · 14 pp · published Apr 2026
Short, focused, operator-readable. Sica's argument tracks closely with the deal-band data in The Lead. The structural section on producer-retention engineering for smaller books is the most useful 4-page treatment we have read this year. If you are inside an 18-month sale window at $2 to $5 million in revenue, this is the document to reread before your next advisor call.
Read it ↗