The Jan 1 and April 1 reinsurance renewals are a lagging indicator for primary-carrier appetite, and the operator implication of how Q1 came in is not what the trade press is reporting. The Jan 1 treaty pricing settled roughly 6 to 9 percent down on loss-free property programs, with the cat-exposed layers flat to slightly down. That is softer than the November consensus expected, and it is materially softer than what most agency principals heard at the year-end carrier-relationship calls. The lag from treaty pricing to primary-carrier appetite runs about two quarters. The practical implication: your Q3 carrier conversations — appointment reviews, contingent forecasts, capacity asks — should be planned against a softer market posture than the Q1 carrier-bulletin language suggests. Three things to watch over the next 90 days. First, the April 1 Florida treaty pricing will tell us whether the cat-exposed softening was a Northeast-and-Texas-only phenomenon or whether it extends to the Southeast. Second, watch the carrier MGA-program announcements; reinsurance softening typically pulls program capacity back into the standard market within two cycles. Third, watch your wholesale broker's submission turnaround on the cat-exposed property book — if it shortens, that is the leading indicator that primary capacity is reopening. Two of three reinsurance brokers we spoke to expect primary-property appetite to widen by Q3. One expects a flat-to-tighter cycle. We will track this through the April 1 print and report what changes.