Coastal capacity flight is roughly 18 months ahead of the inland equivalent. We will track this through Q2.
The hard market in commercial property did not soften over the winter the way the trade press promised it would. What changed is the geography. Coastal capacity flight from Florida, the Carolinas, and the Texas Gulf is now roughly 18 months ahead of the inland equivalent, and the inland book is starting to behave the way the coastal book did in late 2024. Agencies generating $2 to $5 million in commercial revenue tell us roughly one in five accounts that bound standard last renewal will need a wholesale solution this cycle. The standard markets (Travelers, Hartford, Cincinnati Insurance) have not announced retreat from the inland habitational and light-industrial classes, but the appetite letters are quietly tighter and the loss-control referrals are stacking up. The wholesale side has the capacity. The question is whether your producer team has the relationships and the submission discipline to access it without losing 60 days on a placement that should have taken 30. Three things to track this quarter. First, watch which standard carriers tighten habitational specifically; that is the leading indicator. Second, watch the wholesale facultative reinsurance pricing. It sets the floor on what your wholesale broker can quote. Third, watch your own renewal calendar and start the wholesale conversations 90 days out, not 45. We will track this thread through Q2 and report what holds and what shifts.